According to a Motley Fool column, the combined firm could end up disappointing investors by 2030. The facts are solid, but the deal terms will be way more important than either stock’s value.

SpaceX and Tesla, Elon Musk’s biggest companies, are officially considering joining forces. A column from Motley Fool on November 11 questions what $10,000 in the merged firm could fetch by 2030 and figures it’s more likely to drop in value.

I have gone through the numbers and think the column’s mostly right. The biggest thing it leaves out is the exchange ratio.

A Look at What Happened

During SpaceX’s earnings call on October 20, Musk said both companies set up special independent director committees to look into a merger. He mentioned that a merger would be “a good idea” but cautioned against assuming it is definite, adding that no terms have been settled.

After going public in June, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has a market valuation ranging from $1.9 trillion to $2 trillion. Tesla (TSLA) has an approximate valuation of $1.5 trillion. All together, that’s around $3.5 trillion.

The column’s argument

Analyst Brett Schafer says SpaceX is growing fast but pricey, with a price-to-sales ratio of 56, while Tesla’s growth is slower but still pricey, having a price-to-earnings ratio of 417. His point is that neither firm is likely to pull in enough cash by 2030 to support a $3.5 trillion price tag, especially after shares get diluted.

The column mentions that SpaceX’s AI revenue shot up over ten times. The numbers show last year’s base at $813 million compared to $7.56 billion this quarter, roughly 9.3 times more. Axios called the gain “nearly tripling,”.

Analysis of the SpaceX and Tesla Merger

What really counts is the exchange ratio. Adding the two market caps straight up assumes no extra premium.

According to Reuters, Tesla holders may not get a premium when swapping to SpaceX, but Benzinga quoted analysts suggesting 20% to 30%. Barclays has put out an example of 0.7 SpaceX shares for every Tesla share. The final ratio will determine how much of the merged company Tesla shareholders get.

Also, the two companies are valued based on different narratives. The value of SpaceX comes from AI systems and Starlink growing fast. Tesla’s worth is tied to robotaxis, humanoid bots, and software. Even with no change in revenue, Tesla’s research spending jumped by 69% this quarter.

The real challenge is governance. Since Musk controls more than half the votes at SpaceX, it won’t be difficult to approve. According to him, Tesla deals need 50% shareholder approval, which he described as a pretty steep challenge. Analysts say a merger would probably boost his control.

The math for 2030 is pretty tough.

Doubling $10,000 to $20,000 by 2030 means you need around an 18% yearly return. That means a total value close to $7 trillion before dilution, or about $175 billion to $235 billion in annual profit at 30 to 40 times earnings.

To give you an idea, SpaceX’s best quarter made $4.4 billion in net profit, while Tesla earned $2.06 billion in operating income during the first nine months of 2026. This is just example math, not a prediction.

Now to my Forecast

I think there’s about a 50/50 chance of locking in a deal within a year, and about a one in three chance it’ll be done by the end of 2027. Since Tesla’s annual meeting on December 3 doesn’t include a merger proposal, the vote will likely be held at another time.

Here are three example cases for $10,000 by 2030, not counting dividends or taxes. These are my opinions..

Bull (around 20%)

A deal wraps up at a fair price, SpaceX’s AI and Starlink cash flow grow towards Musk’s $500 billion to $1 trillion yearly revenue target by late 2027. While Tesla’s robotics and robotaxi ventures start pulling their weight. It could be anywhere from $18,000 to over $30,000.

Base (roughly 45%)

Growth’s good, but valuation multiples drop since AI spending is getting more attention. Somewhere between $8,000 and $14,000, roughly.

Bear (roughly 35%):

The deal either falls through or finishes poorly, AI costs beat revenue, Tesla’s margins stay slim, and dilution hurts returns. Worth about $4,000 to $8,000.

What to watch

• On November 13, Starship Flight 15 will make the first attempt to catch both the booster and upper stage.
• On December 3, Tesla will hold its annual meeting.
• Any filing that names advisers, fairness opinions, or an exchange ratio would represent the first clear indication of progress.
• SpaceX’s Q4 earnings and Q1 2027 revenue forecast ranging from $33 billion to $37 billion.
• Capital spending by Tesla in Q4. The company forecasted exceeding $25 billion for 2026, having spent $13 billion in the first nine months.